Supply and demand of nurses and midwives: A forecast until 2030
| Date | Start Page | End Page |
|---|---|---|
2023-07-01 | 1 | 1 |
AS06 SUB-THEME 06: Growing and sustaining the nursing workforce. Poster #4359
Background: This is the first-ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for nurses and midwives in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for nurses and midwives in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2021 – 2030. Materials and methods: Supply was calculated using the annual number of new entrants into the labor market and left for various reasons. Two projections of the demand for nurses and midwives were prepared, based on the population’s differing (by age and sex) need for outpatient and inpatient services. Subsequently, the supply scenario and two demand scenarios for each specialty were compared. Results: It is predicted that the supply of nurses in 2030 will be lower than in 2021, though the predicted supply of midwives will exceed. The evaluation of the supply and demand scenarios for nurses revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, which will increase between 2021 and 2025, the predicted nurse shortage will reach 59 in the intermediate demand projection and 331 in the perspective demand projection. In 2030 accordingly shortage of 173 and 772. Conclusions: Considering the changes in the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, the aging population, and the increasing need for nurses’ services, the supply of nurses during the next decade will be insufficient.