Trends in total mortality among the 25-64 year old population in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in 1985-95

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this paper is to assess total mortality trends in Baltic countries of former USSR among the 25-64 year old men and women population during years 1985-1995. The source of mortality data and population in 5-year age groups was WHO data bases. Methods: standardized total mortality rates (SMR) per 100.000 population were calculated using the Europe population as a standard. The mortality trends of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, their changes and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a general linear model with logarithms of SMR as dependent variables and year as the independent variable. Results: A statistically significant increasing trend in total mortality was observed for all countries and both sexes. The average annual change of SMR ( standard error) in Estonia was 4.60.9 % for men and 2.50.8 % for women, in Latvia 6.41.0 % and 3.60.8 %, in Lithuania 4.40.7 % and 2.20.6 % for men and women respectively. When observation period was divided into three sub-periods 1985-88, 1989-92 and 1993-95, a stepped increase was detected in averaged SMR. The relative percentage increments in SMR among men in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were 13%, 19%, 12%, respectively, when comparing I and II periods and 27%, 44%, 32%, respectively, when comparing II and III periods. The analogous percentage increments among women were similar in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (4%, 6%, 6%, respectively) from I to II period, but 18%, 30% and 19%, respectively, from II to III period. The statistically significant, highest mortality rate per 100.000 population during 1985-95 years period was detected in 1994 for both sexes: among men in Latvia, 1905 (95% CI, 1869-1940), among men in Lithuania 1454 (95% CI, 1428-1480), among men in Estonia 1638 (95% CI, 1595-1681). ...