Past and future trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesit y in Lithuania

Abstract

Purpose: The study purpose was to assess changes of overweight and obesity prevalence between 2000 and 2012 in Lithuanian adult population and to project trends to 2050. Materials or Subjects: The data were obtained from six biennial cross-sectional nationally representative postal surveys from 2000 to 2012. In total, 5602 men and 7712 women aged 20-64 participated in these surveys. Outcome Measures: Self-reported body weight and height were used to calculate body mass index. Overweight was defined as BMI≥25 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI≥30 kg/m2. Methods: Lithuania participates in the EConDA project which is funded by the EU Commission and aims to develop models to test the differential effect of chronic disease interventions in population sub-groups. To project trends in obesity forward to 2050 by educational level a two-part modelling process was developed. The first part applies a multivariate, categorical regression analysis to cross-sectional BMI data by sex, age and education using data of 2000-2012 study years. The second part of the modelling process applies a microsimulation programme to enable longitudinal projections. Results: During the study period the most remarkable increase in the prevalence of obesity was found among 55-64 years men (from 14.9% in 2000 to 32.3% in 2012) and in the same age group of women (from 32.9% to 41.7%). By 2050, the prevalence of obesity among men was projected to increase across all age (except 20-29 year old) and educational groups. In 2000-2012 the prevalence of overweight was higher among men with university education compared to less educated. However, projections suggest opposite trends, with the highest prevalence of overweight among less educated men over the next decades if trends go unchecked. In 2000-2012 the lower proportion of high educated women was overweight or obese compared to low educated. By 2050 inequalities in the prevalence of obesity and overweight amon [...].